2026-03-29 — 2026-07-20
The US-Iran conflict has been marked by a fragile and tumultuous peace process, with periods of escalation and de-escalation shaping the trajectory of the dispute. The conflict began with a significant escalation in March 2026, as the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, leading to a surge in gas prices and a new phase of conflict in the Middle East. A ceasefire was announced in April 2026, followed by a proposed framework for a peace deal in May, and the signing of a peace agreement in June, which aimed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and limit Iran's nuclear program. However, the ceasefire has shown signs of collapsing, with tensions reigniting in the Gulf region and oil prices rising again, threatening to undermine the fragile peace achieved earlier in the year.
Initial Conflict
The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, leading to a significant increase in gas prices, grocery bills, and mortgage rates, and a new phase of conflict in the Middle East.
Ceasefire
A two-week ceasefire was announced after Pakistan's intervention, and the US and Iran agreed to a fragile peace deal, with the US pausing its threat to bomb Iranian infrastructure.
Peace Talks
A proposed framework for a peace deal was announced, including a 60-day truce, the reopening of the strait of Hormuz, and revived talks on limiting Iran's nuclear program, marking a potential shift towards a lasting resolution.
US-Iran Peace Deal
The US and Iran signed a peace deal, with the strait of Hormuz set to reopen, and the US lifting its blockade, but questions remained over waterway fees and Israeli breaches of ceasefire in Lebanon.
Escalation
The ceasefire began to collapse, with tit-for-tat exchanges escalating tensions across the Gulf region, and oil prices rising again, as the conflict showed signs of reigniting.